Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Consensus view on the potential relaxing of social distancing measures, 4 May 2020

Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).


SPI-M-O: Consensus view on the potential relaxing of social distancing measures, 4 May 2020

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Consensus view from SPI-M-O on potential relaxing of social distancing measures. It was discussed at SAGE 33 on 5 May 2020.

This paper contains estimates of R for some regions of the UK. Please note that these are estimates from individual modelling groups, and not agreed consensus estimates from SAGE. The estimates cited in this paper are for specified scenarios, and are not forecasts.

R is an average value that can vary in different parts of the country, communities, and subsections of the population. It cannot be measured directly so there is always some uncertainty around its exact value. Regional estimates are subject to greater uncertainty given the lower number of cases and increased variation. It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 29 May 2020
Last updated 13 May 2022 + show all updates
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