Estimating pupil numbers (EPN): how to complete your return for 2023 to 2024

Introduction

The online estimating pupil numbers form is now available for institutions, where the funding agreement allows for estimate funding, to provide estimated pupil numbers for the academic year 2023 to 2024. This form replaces the revenue funding data collection (RFDC) form used in previous years.

For multi-academy trusts (MATs), a return is required for each estimate funded academy in your trust. Once logged into the form, you will be able to see details for all academies within your trust that are in scope of this process.

Moderation of estimated pupil numbers

We will review all estimated pupil numbers to ensure they are reasonable and well-evidenced. We will consider the October 2022 school census return, trends in pupil numbers, retention rates, the accuracy of previous estimates and any information you provide. If we have not accepted your figures, we will explain why, and institutions will be given the opportunity to provide further evidence to support their estimates.

Where necessary, we will contact institutions in early December 2022 to request additional evidence. Following this, there will be a further moderation before final outcomes are confirmed in late January 2023.

Pupil number adjustments (PNA)

Inaccurate estimates can cause significant and problematic adjustments to funding allocations. Each year we reconcile estimates with actual pupil numbers, through the PNA exercise. Where this adjustment is positive (for instance, where funded numbers are less than those recorded in the census) it is made in the same academic year. Where funded numbers are higher than those recorded in the census, we will recover funds in the 2024 to 2025 academic year.

Trusts that have met the conditions in their funding agreement to move to census funding

It may be that the basis of funding for your academy will change to the census for 2023 to 2024. This is because, for most estimate funded institutions, determining the pupil number basis for funding requires certain conditions to be met. These conditions are set out in the funding agreement and, in most cases, relate to occupancy levels and/or that there are pupils in all expected year groups. We will use the autumn 2022 census to establish if these conditions have been met.

If the conditions have been met, the academy will move onto the lagged basis of funding methodology which will use the autumn 2022 census to determine the pupil numbers in the general annual grant (GAG) allocation. There is no pupil number adjustment with the lagged methodology.

Prior to the EPN process taking place, we do not have the census data to determine whether your basis of funding will be census or estimates. It is, therefore, important that you provide your pupils estimate now as it would be too late to request estimates in time to inform this funding allocation round, after the census has taken place.

There may be some institutions that will move to lagged census funding after providing estimated pupil numbers via the EPN. We will confirm whether the basis for funding will be lagged or estimates for all academies within your trust that have these clauses, in December 2022.

Important dates

The timeline for gathering and confirming 2023 to 2024 estimated pupil numbers is as follows:

Date	Activity
29 September 2022	Estimating pupil numbers process launches – academies and trusts submit estimated pupil numbers
3 October 2022	Opening date for submitting the estimating pupil numbers online form
21 October 2022	Closing date for submitting the estimating pupil numbers online form
November 2022 to January 2023	ESFA reviews estimated pupil numbers – academies and trusts should expect possible time-limited requests for further information to support pupil numbers
Mid-December 2022	ESFA will notify any academies that will no longer be funded on estimates in academic year 2023 to 2024
End of January 2023	ESFA will confirm agreed estimated pupil numbers – academies and trusts will have 14 days to raise any concerns regarding the agreed outcome
End of March 2023	ESFA will issue academic year 2023 to 2024 funding allocation statements

Completing your return and providing evidence

Accessing the form

Click on the link to the form.

Before you start

Before you start the submission process, please ensure that you:

• read this accompanying guidance
• have a DfE Sign-in account
• are an eligible institution
• have details of a guaranteed pupil number received from your local authority, if applicable
• have evidence to support an increase in your estimated pupil numbers

DfE Sign-in

You log in to your DfE Sign-in account:

1. When prompted, enter your DfE Sign-in credentials (this is just for authentication)
2. Choose the organisation for whom you are completing the form (MAT only)
3. The next page will display the details we hold about the organisation you selected when you logged in. This will show the name, address and URN or UKPRN of the organisation, as well as the name and email address of the person who logged into DfE Sign-in.
4. If these details are correct, then all you need do is to click ‘Continue’ to step to the next page.
5. If you believe they are incorrect then please complete the ESFA online enquiries form and we will investigate.
6. Complete the form as instructed in the following sections

To access the form for another organisation, sign out and follow steps 1 to 4 again (MATs only).

If you do not have a DfE Sign-in account

You will need to create one:

1. Select the create account button from the DfE Sign-in page.
2. Enter your name and email address (it is best to use your work email address or one that is clearly associated with your organisation)
3. We will send you an email to verify your email address; copy the code from this email and paste it into the box on the verification page
4. Create a memorable password of 12 characters or more (we recommend joining 3 or more familiar words)
5. Sign in using your new credentials, and request access to the organisation for which you would like to submit your estimates.

Once your request to access an organisation has been approved, you can follow the steps outlined under already have a DfE account to complete the form.

You might have noticed the term ‘approver’ during account creation. An approver is someone at your organisation responsible for controlling who has access to DfE Sign-in and the services within the system. It is usually a senior person, such as an administrator or manager.

For security reasons you will need the approval of one of your organisation’s approvers before you can access the form.

If you need further assistance

If you are having problems using the DfE Sign-in service, go to DfE Sign-in Help. You will be able to request further assistance if required. When raising a support request, please select ‘other’.

If you have problems accessing the form, please get in touch with us via the ESFA help centre.

Completing the form

You will need approximately 45 minutes to complete this form. There is no save facility on the form so please have all the information and evidence ready before starting your submission. If your form is opened for an extended period, you may lose any information entered to that point and will need to log in again.

You will be presented with a number of pages to step through which will ask you to complete information related to your estimated pupil numbers. You will then need to complete the required declarations.

Your details

This is a read-only page which will show you:

• the name of the organisation you logged in as
• the URN/UID of the organisation you logged in as
• your full name
• your email address

Your setting type

You can access the form as a single academy or as a MAT. Depending on your type of setting, you will be asked to provide information about your academy or trust before you can progress through the form.

Your funded pupil numbers

This page shows your funded pupil numbers. For most schools, a reasonable starting point to determine your estimated pupil numbers for academic year 2023 to 2024 is your current intake.

The table shows October census data for academic year 2021 to 2022 and the 2022 to 2023 academic year funded numbers for your institution. Both should be used as a guide to estimate your pupil numbers for academic year 2023 to 2024.

Pupil’s age range

You need to select the age ranges for your institution. You can select one or all of the options on this page.

Primary, Secondary and 16 to 19 pupil numbers

Depending on the option(s) you chose on the previous page, you will be presented with one, two or all three pages. Use these to give us a detailed breakdown of estimated pupil numbers for each year.

Guaranteed pupil number

Select the right option for your institution and continue to the next page, where you will be able to enter the guaranteed pupil number for your institution.

If your estimates for 2023 to 2024 are higher than your current intake, tell us why

We have included your 2021 to 2022 academic year actual pupil numbers and your 2022 to 2023 funded pupil numbers in this form. The form will request further information if you are adding a year group and the number of pupils in that year group differ from the number recorded on your previous census return. Please select all options that apply to you to tell us why your estimates for 2023 to 2024 are higher than your current intake.

Upload evidence if your estimates are higher than the current intake

Evidence could be a revised deed of variation, a letter agreeing a change by deed of variation, a local authority email, or a revised funding agreement.

Thank you page

Upon completion of your estimates, you will receive a completion prompt.

Providing additional contact details

We will ask you to enter contact details of 2 additional personnel at your setting. We only use this information if we need to validate something in your estimated pupil numbers return.

Declarations

Finally, we ask you to make a number of declarations.

Once you have completed this page you will be able to click ‘continue’ to submit your form.

Submission summary

You will then be asked to check all your answers before submitting your form and will see your values confirmed.

Please check your answers before submitting your form. If you would like to change any answers, use the ‘change’ link that appears to the particular data entry.

Confirmation

The final page confirms your numbers have been submitted successfully and will give you a unique reference number against your submission. If you have provided us with your contact details in the form, you will also receive a confirmation email.

We will then review your submission and may contact you if additional information is required.

Resubmitting your form

There is no amend facility in the form. If you have incorrectly submitted your EPN form, you can access the form and resubmit the numbers until 5:00pm on 21 October 2022 when this submission window will close.

Contact us

If you’ve read this guidance and have any questions about the estimated pupil numbers or how to complete the online form, please contact us via ESFA help centre.

When completing the enquiry form, select ‘some other academy related query’ as your query type.