Guidance

TAG unit M4 forecasting and uncertainty

Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) provides information on the role of transport modelling and appraisal.

From:
Department for Transport
Published
31 May 2019
Last updated
519 April 2023 — See all updates

Documents

TAG unit M4 forecasting and uncertainty

PDF, 618 KB, 52 pages

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Forthcoming change: spring 2023 data book and guidance updates

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tag-forthcoming-changes/forthcoming-change-spring-2023-data-book-and-guidance-updates

Forthcoming change: accounting for COVID-19 in transport modelling

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tag-forthcoming-changes/forthcoming-change-accounting-for-covid-19-in-transport-modelling

Forthcoming change: high and low growth scenarios and awareness of future updates

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tag-forthcoming-changes/updates-to-guidance-on-forecasting-and-uncertainty

Details

This document gives guidance on the analysis of forecasting and uncertainty in transport appraisals.

The guidance is supplemented by the Uncertainty Toolkit.

The previous version of this guidance was released in May 2019.

TAG provides information on the role of transport modelling and appraisal, and how the transport appraisal process supports the development of investment decisions to support a business case.

Published 31 May 2019
Last updated 519 April 2023 + show all updates

  1. Added forthcoming change: spring 2023 data book and guidance updates.

  2. Added forthcoming change: accounting for COVID-19 in transport modelling.

  3. TAG unit M4 forecasting and uncertainty updated.

  4. Forthcoming change to guidance note added, giving details of updates to be made in November 2022.

  5. First published.